coldread.dev

Methodology
Methodology

How this actually works.

How the panel is built, how reactions are generated, what the scores mean, and where it fits.

Before spendPreflight read

Use it to find objections, confusion, trust risk, and rewrite moves before real spend.

BaselineReal voter data

Built from the shipping roster, with coverage stats computed at build time.

OutputScore + risks

Individual reactions, clusters, segment splits, and ranked edits.

real voter data

Computed from the same files the engine runs.

Baseline
Real voter dataready to run
Distinct occupations
509no copy-paste roster
States covered
51incl. DC + PR
Median age
42range 1678
Audience packs
21curated presets
Data sets
29+ 6 sample messages

Computed at build time from src/personas/_compiled/americans.json — the same file the run engine loads.

the method

An agentic focus group, not a survey.

Coldread takes any written asset (an ad, landing page, email, speech, debate answer, public statement, agent output) and runs it past a focus group of specifically-defined people. Each "person" is a written persona — name, age, occupation, region, voice, biographical detail — that the model speaks as. You get back individual reactions, scores, recurring objections, and ranked rewrite suggestions in minutes.

the run, step by step

Asset in → independent voter reads → synthesized verdict.

The architecture is genuinely multi-agent: parallel calls with private context, a blind synthesis layer, and graceful degradation when a batch fails.

  1. 1Asset in

    Your ad, email, speech, statement, or URL becomes the stimulus. Optionally grounded with voter data and source notes.

  2. 2Private conditioning

    Each panel member is conditioned only on their own persona file — name, age, occupation, region, voice, biography.

  3. 3Parallel reactions

    One independent agent call per person. No cross-talk, no shared verdict, no consensus pressure. Disagreement is emergent.

  4. 4Blind synthesis

    A separate judge pass aggregates the reactions without ever seeing persona demographics — so it can't stereotype the read.

  5. 5Decision report

    Topline score, sentiment split, objection clusters, segment splits, trust and confusion risk, ranked rewrites.

Audience-mode runs work the same way but generate archetype agents from your audience description, source context, and the simulated population size you enter, then sample variant personas inside each archetype. The hosted website generates a 240-respondent sample (40 archetypes × 6 variants) to represent that population; CLI and MCP callers can request larger direct runs within server caps. Hybrid runs read the named panel and the generated audience together.

the baseline, measured

Hand-built real voter data baseline.

Across trades, healthcare, public service, professional work, retail, agriculture, military, education, and creative work. Written one at a time, not generated in bulk — 509 distinct occupations across the roster.

under 3073 · 14%
30–44248 · 49%
45–64180 · 35%
65+9 · 2%

Specific, not archetypal — not "suburban mom" but Beth Howell, 36, suburban Indianapolis, ex-marketing manager who sees the manipulation in your copy and dismisses it in two seconds.

meet the panel

Real entries from the shipping roster.

Pulled straight from the persona files the engine runs. Click anyone to read the opening of their file; shuffle for a different cut of the roster.

Rotating sample of the shipping roster · subscribers can browse all entries via coldread panel show americans
measured against humans

The MIT focus group benchmark.

A public focus group baseline on AI and deepfakes — 3 human groups, 39 participants — scored against a fixed 10-category insight rubric, 0–2 points per category.

18/20rubric points recovered
Coldread reactions
546same topic brief
Model spend
$0.097this run (not a per-run price)
Human baseline
39participants, 3 groups
What it recovered, and the two misses

Coldread recovered trust erosion, scams and impersonation, political misinformation, verification behavior, accessibility benefits, consent risk, bias, and audience relevance gaps. The two partial misses matter: the human groups gave more texture to the "liar's dividend" problem (real evidence later dismissed as fake), and surfaced institutional disruption themes more strongly.

That is why we do not claim AI replaces human research. The claim is narrower: a fast first read on what people will understand, reject, trust, ignore, or question — before you spend weeks recruiting a panel.

under the hood

The persona schema and the guard rails.

The research-grade detail, collapsed so the page stays readable.

The five-tier persona schema

Each panel member is described by a multi-tier profile. The ordering reflects empirical priority: a narrative biography predicts how a person responds far better than any structured demographic field (Park et al., Generative Agent Simulations of 1,000 People, 2024 — interview-conditioned agents replicated their source individuals at 85% of the source's own two-week test–retest reliability; demographic-only agents reached 71%).

  • Tier 1 — stable disposition. Big Five percentiles, Schwartz value axes, Moral Foundations weights, worldview anchors, attachment style, need for cognition, regulatory focus.
  • Tier 2 — biography. A narrative life-history sketch with formative shocks captured dimensionally rather than as a cumulative count.
  • Tier 3 — active goals. What this person is trying to accomplish when they encounter the asset.
  • Tier 4 — state & context. Mood, cognitive load, social context.
  • Tier 5 — communicative style. Vocabulary level, hedging tendency, dissent willingness, scale-extremity tendency — without per-persona extremity priors, LLM personas over-emit scale endpoints (≈78% vs. humans' ≈35%).

The Americans baseline was hand-authored before this schema landed; it uses Tier 2 narrative + a subset of Tier 1/5 fields and is being progressively backfilled. Auto-generated panels ship with the full schema.

Anti-bias guard rails
  • Mode collapse / extremity bias — personas are instructed to use the middle of the scale when genuinely mixed; each persona's scale-extremity tendency is a per-persona prior.
  • Sycophancy — "Praise must be earned by something specific in the asset." Uncertainty is normalized as a valid reaction.
  • WEIRD skew — the recruiter prompt explicitly resists the young/educated/urban/secular default unless that genuinely is the audience.
  • Voice flattening — Tier 5 style fields are rendered into the prompt so personas don't collapse to the LLM's default register.

These are mitigations, not eliminations. Validity work (held-out human benchmarks, GSS / ANES / WVS calibration) is ongoing.

What the scores mean

Each panel member gives the asset a 1–10 score and a short reaction in their voice. The headline Score (0–10) reflects how good the message is: it is derived from the share of the audience won over — the people moved enough to act — on a calibrated curve where winning a majority of a cold audience reads as genuinely strong, not merely average. The raw "won over" percentage is reported alongside it. The aggregate also reports the average individual reaction, sentiment buckets, consensus, polarization, confusion risk, trust risk, persuasion lift, backlash risk, message discipline, opposition vulnerability, factual exposure, top and bottom responders, recurring objections, and ranked rewrites. Use them as a directional read — the value is in the named reactions and recurring objections, not the single number at the top.

read this if you read nothing else

What this is not.

This is not literal market research. The panel members are written personas, not recruited respondents. Scores are a structured pre-flight signal — directional, fast, and cheap — not a forecast of conversion lift or population truth.

It is not a substitute for real voter contact, user testing, or paid pilots. Use Coldread as the read you do before spending on those — to kill the obviously-bad version and walk into the expensive test with a stronger draft.

the moat for regulated buyers

Trust, made checkable.

For a candidate under compliance scrutiny, defensibility is the product. A Coldread number is built to survive a campaign lawyer, a hostile reporter, or a skeptical data team: it is impossible to misread as a forecast, it is reproducible from a stamped fingerprint, and — when the parity measurement lands — demonstrably even-handed across parties.

Every number carries its own guardrail.

Coldread is a directional, bipartisan preflight read on how a message is likely to land and where it breaks. It is NOT a poll, NOT a prediction, and does NOT forecast vote share, turnout, or election outcomes. Treat scores as directional signal; use the language, objections, and segment splits operationally. Every reaction is generated by a language model, not a real person.

The same line is single-sourced and rendered on every surface a number can leave on — the on-screen report, the PDF (a standing disclaimer block plus a footer on every page), the CSV / JSON / Markdown exports, the CLI, and the MCP response envelope. No surface can emit a naked point estimate.

Every report is reproducible.

Each run is stamped with a config fingerprint — provider, model id, date, panel composition, and archetype × variant counts hashed to a short, stable tag. A staffer can say “this is the read from this run, on this model, at this config; here's the fingerprint; re-run it and you'll get the same directional answer within the noise floor.” If the model id changes, the fingerprint changes — silent model drift becomes visible on the report instead of invisibly stale.

Bipartisan parity, published.

Bipartisan-parity badge: measurement pending (bipartisan-fairness-moonshot). We publish this only once it is measured on matched, human-validated R-vs-D pairs — a parity claim that doesn't survive scrutiny is worse than none. Built bipartisan from the substrate up, Coldread can make a symmetric parity claim that a tool validated on mostly one side's messaging structurally cannot.

Persona provenance.

The real voter data baseline is hand-written, not scraped or synthesized on the fly, and Census-matched on the marginals shown above. Political personas carry explicit, partisan-by-design voting history — the panel is built to be even-handed, not accidentally one-sided. They are not real people, and we never claim they are; they are a structured, documented instrument whose composition you can inspect in the roster above.

AI-content disclosure (compliance aid, not legal advice).

A growing patchwork of states regulates AI and synthetic media in political communications. We maintain a versioned, dated map of those requirements — 5 states currently mapped, registry 2026.06.0, last reviewed 2026-06-20 — and generate a starting-draft disclosure line you can adapt. Example draft:

This ad script was created or substantially generated using artificial intelligence. (Drafted toward California CA AB 2839 / AB 2655 (2024). Confirm exact wording and placement with counsel.)

Maintained map of state AI-disclosure requirements for political communications. Not legal advice. Verify with counsel before relying on any entry; the law changes frequently.

privacy

Your unreleased strategy stays yours.

Draft attack lines and not-yet-public messaging are among the most sensitive material a campaign holds. Runs are dispatched server-side with a Coldread-managed key; we don't write your asset or reactions to disk. Recent runs live in your browser's localStorage, on your device — not ours. Full disclosure at /privacy.

pricing

Plans from $19/mo.

Early Access $19/mo, Pro $29/mo, or Max $120/mo — every tier includes the real voter data baseline, hosted generated-audience reads for any simulated population size, follow-ups, MCP/CLI, and exports. Teams (up to 5 people) are included with Pro and higher — every member runs on their own plan. Enterprise Teams (more than 5 people, central billing): hello@peachstateai.com. Billing via Stripe.

disagree?

Tell us why.

The panel and prompts evolve based on real complaints. Reach us via /contact.

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